Astra C Works It Out
The Never Ending Quest - Episode 47434
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Astra thought: Let's work through the possibilities. If the treasure is
in the third basket, then it makes no difference which of the other two
the master of ceremonies chooses to open. If it is in the first basket,
then he will have to open the second basket, and vice versa. But he can
always select a basket containing lead and iron to open. Originally, the
visitor's chance of choosing correctly was one in three, so if he stays
with his original choice then that must remain his chance of winning, as
nothing that happens subsequently will change that. Now suppose that he
switches. What is the situation then? Well, either his original choice was
correct or else the one that he switches to is correct. So it seems that
switching gives him a one in two chance of winning. That appears logical,
as it takes advantage of the additional information gained through being
able to eliminate one of the three boxes from consideration.
933, 934, 935... Astra ran through everything one more time to check her reasoning. "He should switch," she said.
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JH (who has come across this puzzle before and believes that switching is correct)
12/5/2004 2:52:57 AM
Extending Enabled
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