The G.A.R. Men Debate the War

"What do you mean, if we should get involved? The war is going to be over by next year, one way or the other," said Ezra.

Simeon replied, "I doubt it. Left to themselves, the war might go on a very long time. Looking at the reports in the newspapers, it looks like they are starting to run out of real estate."

Gideon added, "Yep. It looks like they are going to reach the sea this week. It reminds me of the Petersburg campaign. That was a tough nut to crack."

Ezra replied, "But surely the Germans have to knock the French out, or they lose the war simply because they can't get enough to eat. The British Navy will choke them off with a blockade."

Matthew said, "I think that Germany and Austria have plenty of farmland. If they can hold what they have in France, they might be able to beat Russia. Sir, you were talking about the Virginia campaign during the War. The Rebs had their best army in Virginia, sort of like the French Army is probably the best that the Allies have. It was easier to make big gains in Mississippi River valley and Tennessee. It was a different opponent, with more space for maneuver. Russia may be the Mississippi, Cumberland, and Tennessee River of this war. If Germany breaks through there, then that may be enough for them. Of course, there are a few things that the Germans do need from abroad to carry the war through."

Ezra replied, "Steel and coal?"

Matt said, "I don't think so. The Germans should have enough of both, unless the British Navy tries to cut off their supply of iron from Sweden. Despite the article in the newspaper suggesting that they might try that, I doubt that the British will try to force their way into the Baltic. Too much immediate risk for too uncertain a gain."

Ezra said, "Oil, maybe?"

Matt replied, "It could be a factor if the war drags on long enough, but remember that the Ottomans are on their side. There is plenty of oil there, if they do not get knocked out."

Simeon said, "Don't be coy, Matthew. You had something in mind when it came to the blockade."

Matthew replied, "OK. Try these two. Rubber..."

Ezra said, "Oh, that makes sense. The Ottoman Empire wouldn't include any jungles, would it?"

Matthew said, "No, it is mostly desert with some farm country. You have to go to East Asia and South America for rubber."

Ezra asked, "And the other?"

Matthew smiled, and said, "Bat crap."

The others laughed, but Matthew said, "I know, it sounds like I am pulling your leg, but really, it is. If I told you 'gunpowder', would you take it seriously?"

Ezra said, "Explain, if you would."

Matthew said, "Bat guano is the world's best source of nitrate compounds, which are used not only in gunpowder, but modern explosives. If the Germans don't have enough nitrates, they will not have enough ammunition to continue the war." (Matthew was well-informed from his job and travels about such matters are to resource distribution, but was not aware that the German chemists had already solved the nitrate problem, and would soon mitigate the rubber problem.)

Ezra said, "So that tends to prove my original point. Explosives, rubber, maybe oil - and that is just the things that we have thought of. I still say that the Germans have to win quickly. So where do you stand, Matthew?"

"I am not sure. What do you think, Gideon?"

"It took us four years to bring the Rebs to their senses. And the Germans have much better factories, and some very smart people. If it is going to be a battle of attrition and blockade, I think that the allies win, but it takes about four years."

"So you think that peace happens in 1918. How about you, Simeon?"

"If you are going by history, European wars last a long time. What happens is that the wars are fought, and eventually both sides get worn out and make a peace, but the bad feelings are still there, and another war gets fought as soon as one side thinks it is ready. The Thirty Years War is a good example of such a war, and the Napoleonic Wars are a more recent example. They started in, what, 1789? And ended in 1815 at Waterloo? So that would make it, 27 years? So imagine a war of the same scope. Maybe a peace in 1917, and then someone starts it back in 1919, and a bunch of short wars until someone finally prevails sometime around 1944."

Ezra said, "Whoa, thirty years. I hope not, for the sake of civilization. But let's say that this war lasts more than a year. Should we come to the aid of the Allies, or just stay out?"

Simeon said, "To me, it is obvious. There is something ugly in Germany. Burning that library at Louvain, as well as some of the lurid accounts that I have read about what their Army is doing in Belgium, convinces me that the Germans have to be beaten."

Matt said, "I agree. But might it not be better for us to stay out, and then help work out a peace afterward with clean hands? After all, the Russians have treated their own people shamefully, and the British and French have their empires."

Simeon replied, "I would say that the British and French are closer to the people we should back. While I don't approve of the morals of some of the French, they are a democracy at least, and we owe them a debt of gratitude for aiding us during our Revolution. And there is a world of difference between the British and Germans. I cannot imagine King Edward or King George waving a sword and spouting off the 'the fate of Europe will be decided by God and my army' type nonsense."

Gideon added, "I would think that if there were such a British monarch, the public would just laugh at him, while someone would discretely arrange a succession and cart the man off to a lunatic hospital."

Ezra said, "Hopefully the war will be short, and America will not have to make that decision."

Simeon said, "Especially under a President Wilson. It is a misfortune that such a man is in office during times like these."

Matthew changed the subject, "Ezra, I have heard that you are going out to San Francisco this summer."

"Yes, yes. It will probably be my last trip out there. It is amazing how fast the trains have gotten. I took the same trip twenty years ago and if all went well you would be there in four days. On this trip, I will make it in three."

Then Matthew grinned, "So if we keep making the same progress - and I know that the engineers are working hard on it - then in 1934 it should take two days to get out there, and it in 1954 we will get there in a day."

Ezra said, "It might be possible, with better fuel, engines, and improvements in the composition of material."

Matthew continued, "And in 1974, the time will be down to nothing. So I can go to the station at noon, pick up a fresh loaf of sourdough bread off Market Street, add a cut of Texas sirloin straight from the farm, get a cup of fresh coffee from New Orleans, and be back at home by 12:30."

Ezra said, "Come on Matthew. There comes a point where a straight line doesn't work. Let's follow your train of thought - so to speak. In 1994, if I make a round trip to San Francisco, I can go back in time by a day."

Matthew said, "Well, two actually, as it is a round trip."

Ezra said, "Two days, then. So I suppose if we live far enough into the future we will be able to go back into the past. So as long as we are talking nonsense, let's have some fun with it. Simeon, where would you go?"

"Hm. This is nonsense, but ... let's think. All of history. I am going to say, Jerusalem, about 20 AD. I read about the Bible times, and I have faith, but if the Good Lord were willing, I think that I would like to see Jerusalem in the day's before Christ's ministry on Earth."

Matthew said, "You do realize that you would not understand Aramaic, and likely not the Greek or Latin used in that day? And that you might not last that long without a job?"

Simeon shook his head and said, "You also realize that since we are talking nonsense anyway, obstacles like that can be overlooked?"

Matthew replied, "I concede the point. Gideon?"

Gideon let out a breath, and said, "Seriously?" He then thought. "June First, eighteen hundred and sixty-four. I was at Cold Harbor. We had a very nasty week of fighting - and it was a waste. I knew at the time it would be, but ... I could not speak up. There was a force, a spell that I think that we are all under, and we started to hope that we could force the rebels back, rather than thinking things through. Setting sail in confident expectation of a miracle, I guess. I could see my commander wavering - he may have had the same doubts I did. I have always wondered what would have happened if I had spoken up."

The men were silent for a bit, and then Matthew spoke up, "Fair enough, although I don't know that you would have held enough rank to make a difference. For me, I would go forward. I am not likely to live to fifty more years, but I would like to see the world in 1964. I would hope that the war would be over by then, and who knows what they would have. Think about all the fairy tales of the past - like the magic carpet. Trains and airplanes won't get down to taking people anywhere within an instant, but if we could get to Peking or London within a day by an aeroplane or airship, that would be enough like a magic carpet for my taste. Or the fountain of youth? Medicine is much better now that it was 100 years ago. Maybe by 1964 we will have gotten rid of many germs, and doctors will be working on slowing and softening old age. And what sort of people would we become? With improved health and more time for study, many of the ills of this time will be a distant memory, and maybe not even something that people in 1964 would understand. I probably would not want to go too far beyond fifty years though - too many changes, and I might not be able to take them all in, even if most of them were wonderful."

Simeon said, "Interesting. I had not thought of the magic in fairy tales as being fulfilled in the present day, Matthew. I enjoy hearing your ideas, even if I don't always agree with them. I am afraid that I don't see moral progress as following from scientific progress. But for my children and grandchildren's sake, I pray that it be so. One more, before I must take my leave. Ezra, we haven't heard from you."

1. Ezra said, "Mine is personal, sort of like Gideon's. But it doesn't involve the war."

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